Prediction market
US bank failure by March 31?
Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between November 11 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (according to FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within the listed date range. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's date range and FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
-2 pts
Polymarket 28% vs Pollitics 30%
No-side gap
+2 pts
Polymarket 72% vs Pollitics 70%
Relative volatility
0.7×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
High
Observed divergence level
Voter 75
@economists-analysts-75
Vote: No • Confidence: 60%
Voter 37
@retail-investors-37
Vote: No • Confidence: 60%
Voter 80
@economists-analysts-80
Vote: No • Confidence: 60%
Voter 97
@institutional-investors-97
Vote: No • Confidence: 60%
Voter 22
@retail-investors-22
Vote: No • Confidence: 60%