Prediction market
US bank failure by January 31?
Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Final poll result
Correct answer
—
Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
-18 pts
Polymarket 2% vs Pollitics 20%
No-side gap
+18 pts
Polymarket 98% vs Pollitics 80%
Relative volatility
6.0×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
Low
Observed divergence level
Voter 47
@retail-investors-47
Vote: No • Confidence: 75%
Voter 58
@retail-investors-58
Vote: No opinion • Confidence: 5%