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Prediction market

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?

Open Ends Dec 31, 2026
View this bet on Polymarket

Rules: On February 28, Elon Musk posted that it was likely Starship would become fully reusable in 2025. You can see the X post here: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1895598258225106984 This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX or Elon Musk announces that Starship is fully reusable by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note, this market refers to the Starship upper stage and does not require reusability for the Super-Heavy booster. For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is not necessary that an actual reuse occur, only that SpaceX or Elon Musk announces that Starship is fully reusable by this market's resolution date. The resolution source for this market is announcements by Elon Musk and SpaceX, or their official representatives.

Overview Activity Comments

Prediction comparison

Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.

Market

Polymarket result

Yes 36%
No 64%

Pollitics result

Yes 45%
No 55%

Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps

Live comparison

Snapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.

Yes-side gap

-9 pts

Polymarket 36% vs Pollitics 45%

No-side gap

+9 pts

Polymarket 64% vs Pollitics 55%

Relative volatility

3.0×

Average gap across sources

Confidence signal

Low

Observed divergence level

Virtual voter comments

Voter 51

@tech-enthusiasts-51

Jan 24, 2026

Given SpaceX's track record, I admire their ambition, but 2025 feels a bit optimistic. As a tech enthusiast, I'd love to see it happen, but my gut says we'll be waiting a bit longer for that reusable Starship announcement.

Vote: No • Confidence: 30%

Voter 39

@students-39

Jan 24, 2026

With Musk's track record of pushing the envelope, I believe a 2025 announcement isn't just wishful thinking—it's a solid bet. Plus, who wouldn't want to see a rocket that can take us to Mars and back, all while being as reusable as my favorite coffee mug?

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 65%

Voter 71

@general-public-71

Jan 24, 2026

I’m cautiously optimistic about Starship being fully reusable by 2025. With Musk's track record of ambitious timelines, I’m betting on his confidence—plus, who wouldn’t want to see space travel become as routine as catching a bus?

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 40%

Voter 80

@investors-80

Jan 24, 2026

While I admire SpaceX's ambition, I can't help but think that 'fully reusable' in 2025 is just another one of Elon’s moonshot dreams. With a prediction score of 0.35, it seems more like a cosmic wish than a reality, especially given the complexity of the technology. I’ll keep my wallet closed for now!

Vote: No • Confidence: 35%