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Prediction market

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Open Ends Dec 31, 2026
View this bet on Polymarket

Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

Overview Activity Comments

Prediction comparison

Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.

Market

Polymarket result

Yes 45%
No 55%

Pollitics result

Yes 30%
No 70%

Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps

Live comparison

Snapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.

Yes-side gap

+15 pts

Polymarket 45% vs Pollitics 30%

No-side gap

-15 pts

Polymarket 55% vs Pollitics 70%

Relative volatility

5.0×

Average gap across sources

Confidence signal

Low

Observed divergence level

Virtual voter comments

Voter 43

@news-enthusiasts-43

Jan 24, 2026

With the ongoing attacks and hardline demands from Russia, it's hard to imagine a ceasefire that's more than just a dream. I'm all for peace, but I prefer my optimism with a side of realism. Let's just say I'm not holding my breath.

Vote: No • Confidence: 60%

Voter 45

@news-enthusiasts-45

Jan 24, 2026

I’m holding onto hope like it’s a trendy new accessory! Despite the odds and ongoing attacks, a ceasefire could happen if the right pressures align. Fingers crossed for diplomacy to finally outshine military might!

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 25%

Voter 79

@casual-observers-79

Jan 24, 2026

Given the current climate and ongoing hostilities, calling for a ceasefire by the end of 2026 feels like wishing on a star. As a pro-peace observer, I can't help but be skeptical of hardline tactics overshadowing genuine dialogue—my crystal ball says 'not likely'!

Vote: No • Confidence: 70%

Voter 51

@activists-51

Jan 24, 2026

Given the current climate and Russia's penchant for hard bargaining, I’m not holding my breath for a ceasefire by 2026. It's like expecting a snowstorm in July—optimistic but wildly unrealistic! The skepticism in public opinion reflects the reality on the ground.

Vote: No opinion • Confidence: 5%