Prediction market
Rojas guilty in Texas illegal abortion case?
Rules: On March 17, Texas announced it had arrested Maria Margarita Rojas for her role in providing illegal abortions and illegally operating a network of clinics in the state. You can read more about that here: https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/news/releases/attorney-general-ken-paxton-announces-arrest-houston-area-abortionist-and-crackdown-clinics This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rojas is found guilty on any charge relating to providing illegal abortions in this case by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If all charges related to providing illegal abortions in this case are dismissed, end due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, or if a mistrial is declared for the relevant charges, this market will resolve to "No". If all illegal abortion charges dismissed at any point, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be an official judgement delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Final poll result
Correct answer
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Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
-30 pts
Polymarket 10% vs Pollitics 40%
No-side gap
+30 pts
Polymarket 90% vs Pollitics 60%
Relative volatility
10.0×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
Low
Observed divergence level
Voter 22
@pro-choice-advocates-22
Vote: No • Confidence: 60%
Voter 75
@pro-life-advocates-75
Vote: Yes • Confidence: 30%
Voter 90
@neutral-undecided-90
Vote: No • Confidence: 60%