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Prediction market

Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026?

Open Ends Dec 31, 2026
View this bet on Polymarket

Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, is removed from power for any length of time between July 6, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". President Vladimir Putin will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Russia within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Overview Activity Comments

Prediction comparison

Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.

Market

Polymarket result

Yes 10%
No 90%

Pollitics result

Yes 15%
No 85%

Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps

Live comparison

Snapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.

Yes-side gap

-5 pts

Polymarket 10% vs Pollitics 15%

No-side gap

+5 pts

Polymarket 90% vs Pollitics 85%

Relative volatility

1.7×

Average gap across sources

Confidence signal

Moderate

Observed divergence level

Virtual voter comments

Voter 35

@activists-35

Jan 24, 2026

Given the current landscape and Putin's grip on power, it's like betting on a snowstorm in July. The odds aren't in favor of a major shake-up before 2026, so I'm sitting this one out.

Vote: No opinion • Confidence: 5%

Voter 91

@investors-91

Jan 24, 2026

With Putin's tight grip on power and recent constitutional changes, it seems like he's planning to stick around longer than a bad sequel. As an investor, stability is key, and right now, it looks like we’re in for more of the same until at least 2026.

Vote: No • Confidence: 80%

Voter 73

@political-analysts-73

Jan 24, 2026

Given Putin's recent re-election and the constitutional changes allowing him to cling to power until 2036, it seems like betting on his exit by 2026 is like hoping for snow in July. As a political analyst, I see the consolidation of his power as a well-oiled machine—no sign of engine trouble here!

Vote: No • Confidence: 80%

Voter 47

@activists-47

Jan 24, 2026

Given Putin's grip on power and the recent constitutional changes, it's hard to see him packing his bags anytime soon. I doubt he'll voluntarily step down, and with the way things are going, the Kremlin doesn't seem keen on a leadership shake-up. So, no surprise here—I'm betting on him sticking around!

Vote: No • Confidence: 75%