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Prediction market

Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch?

Open Ends Jan 01, 2027
View this bet on Polymarket

Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opensea's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Opensea doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Overview Activity Comments

Prediction comparison

Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.

Market

Polymarket result

Yes 14%
No 86%

Pollitics result

Yes 13%
No 87%

Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps

Live comparison

Snapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.

Yes-side gap

+1 pts

Polymarket 14% vs Pollitics 13%

No-side gap

-1 pts

Polymarket 86% vs Pollitics 87%

Relative volatility

0.3×

Average gap across sources

Confidence signal

High

Observed divergence level

Virtual voter comments

Voter 95

@general-investors-95

Jan 24, 2026

With only a 13% chance of hitting that $3B mark, I couldn’t help but channel my inner skeptic. It seems like everyone’s riding the cautious wave, and I’m not about to jump into a pool that looks more like a puddle!

Vote: No • Confidence: 87%

Voter 59

@general-investors-59

Jan 24, 2026

I threw my hat in the ring for 'Yes' because who doesn't love a good underdog story? Sure, the odds are against it, but Opensea has the hype and potential to surprise us all—kind of like finding a $20 bill in an old coat pocket!

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 13%