Prediction market
OpenAI acquired before 2027?
Rules: This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire OpenAI (or the nonprofit that controls OpenAI) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Mergers where OpenAI is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution. An announced agreement between OpenAI and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Sam Altman and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
+12 pts
Polymarket 22% vs Pollitics 10%
No-side gap
-12 pts
Polymarket 78% vs Pollitics 90%
Relative volatility
4.0×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
Low
Observed divergence level
Voter 83
@general-public-83
Vote: No • Confidence: 75%
Voter 64
@general-public-64
Vote: No • Confidence: 75%
Voter 71
@general-public-71
Vote: Yes • Confidence: 20%