Prediction market
Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30?
Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world between November 5, 2025 ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth or in space will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations. Use/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate, a fake weapon that never detonates, or a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material by means of a conventional explosion are not sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution of this market. Only a successful nuclear detonation will result in a "Yes" resolution. This market may resolve to "Yes" as soon as a nuclear detonation is confirmed by a preponderance of credible reporting. For the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
-4 pts
Polymarket 6% vs Pollitics 10%
No-side gap
+4 pts
Polymarket 94% vs Pollitics 90%
Relative volatility
1.3×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
Moderate
Observed divergence level
Voter 91
@general-public-91
Vote: No • Confidence: 60%
Voter 27
@academic-researchers-27
Vote: No opinion • Confidence: 5%