Prediction market
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Rules: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 27 - 28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Final poll result
Correct answer
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Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
+24 pts
Polymarket 99% vs Pollitics 75%
No-side gap
-24 pts
Polymarket 1% vs Pollitics 25%
Relative volatility
8.0×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
Low
Observed divergence level
Voter 14
@finance-professionals-14
Vote: No • Confidence: 10%
Voter 31
@finance-professionals-31
Vote: No opinion • Confidence: 5%
Voter 18
@finance-professionals-18
Vote: Yes • Confidence: 85%
Voter 26
@finance-professionals-26
Vote: No • Confidence: 80%
Voter 44
@finance-professionals-44
Vote: No • Confidence: 80%