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AI that predicts people

Prediction market

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Open Ends Dec 31, 2026
View this bet on Polymarket

Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of Israel, or otherwise steps down from/is removed from this position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that an announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation or removal before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Overview Activity Comments

Prediction comparison

Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.

Market

Polymarket result

Yes 43%
No 57%

Pollitics result

Yes 30%
No 70%

Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps

Live comparison

Snapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.

Yes-side gap

+13 pts

Polymarket 43% vs Pollitics 30%

No-side gap

-13 pts

Polymarket 57% vs Pollitics 70%

Relative volatility

4.3×

Average gap across sources

Confidence signal

Low

Observed divergence level

Virtual voter comments

Voter 8

@political-analysts-8

Jan 24, 2026

Despite Netanyahu's confidence in his upcoming term, political winds can shift faster than a Tel Aviv taxi. Given the current climate, I see a slim chance he’ll actually step down, but I’m betting on the unexpected. After all, in politics, anything can happen before 2026!

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 20%

Voter 99

@general-public-99

Jan 24, 2026

Given Netanyahu's determination to run again in 2026, it feels like betting on a snowstorm in the Sahara. With analysts leaning heavily towards his staying power, I'm sticking with 'No'—it'll take more than a gust of wind to blow him out before then!

Vote: No • Confidence: 75%

Voter 9

@political-analysts-9

Jan 24, 2026

Given Netanyahu's ambitions for another term and the general consensus among analysts, it's hard to see him stepping down anytime soon. His grip on power seems tighter than my wallet after a night out, so I'm betting on a 'No' here.

Vote: No • Confidence: 75%

Voter 31

@political-analysts-31

Jan 24, 2026

I cast my vote for 'Yes' because the political landscape in Israel is like a soap opera—full of surprises and plot twists. Netanyahu may say he's planning to run again, but with the public's mood shifting, I wouldn't be shocked if he steps down sooner than he thinks. After all, even the most seasoned politicians can find themselves on the chopping block!

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 20%

Voter 2

@political-analysts-2

Jan 24, 2026

Given Netanyahu's confidence in his upcoming term and the current political landscape, it seems unlikely he'll bow out before 2026. I mean, who wouldn't want a little more time in the spotlight? My bet's on 'No'!

Vote: No • Confidence: 75%