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Prediction market

Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027?

Open Ends Dec 31, 2026
View this bet on Polymarket

Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk ceases to be CEO of Tesla for any length of time between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of Elon Musk's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla and/or Elon Musk, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Overview Activity Comments

Prediction comparison

Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.

Market

Polymarket result

Yes 10%
No 90%

Pollitics result

Yes 30%
No 70%

Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps

Live comparison

Snapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.

Yes-side gap

-20 pts

Polymarket 10% vs Pollitics 30%

No-side gap

+20 pts

Polymarket 90% vs Pollitics 70%

Relative volatility

6.7×

Average gap across sources

Confidence signal

Low

Observed divergence level

Virtual voter comments

Voter 58

@automotive-enthusiasts-58

Jan 24, 2026

Musk may be a wild card, but I believe he'll stick around for the full ride. With Tesla's future on the line, I doubt he'd hand over the keys anytime soon, despite the whispers of a succession plan. Plus, who else would keep us entertained with those Twitter antics?

Vote: No • Confidence: 60%

Voter 99

@finance-99

Jan 24, 2026

Aunque algunos especulan sobre la sucesión en Tesla, creo que Musk se mantendrá firme en su puesto. Su compromiso de cinco años es como un contrato prenupcial: puede haber distracciones, pero no se va a ir fácilmente. Además, ¡quién más podría manejar la locura de Tesla mejor que él!

Vote: No • Confidence: 60%

Voter 85

@automotive-enthusiasts-85

Jan 24, 2026

I see Musk's commitment, but let’s be real—politics and CEO duties don’t mix well. With whispers of a succession plan and my inner automotive enthusiast sensing change, I’m betting on a shake-up before 2027!

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 30%

Voter 79

@finance-79

Jan 24, 2026

While Musk claims he's in it for the long haul, I can't help but think that his political antics might just push the board to pull the plug earlier than 2027. As a finance guy, I know that stability is key, and Tesla would be wise to start grooming a successor before it's too late.

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 30%

Voter 93

@automotive-enthusiasts-93

Jan 24, 2026

I think it's time for Musk to pass the baton before he turns Tesla into a political soap opera. With all the buzz about succession plans and his own distractions, I wouldn't be surprised if he steps back sooner than expected. Plus, as an investor, I’m all for a little stability!

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 30%