Prediction market
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?
Rules: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Javier Milei ceases to be the President of Argentina for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Javier Milei's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Argentina, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
-21 pts
Polymarket 9% vs Pollitics 30%
No-side gap
+21 pts
Polymarket 91% vs Pollitics 70%
Relative volatility
7.0×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
Low
Observed divergence level
Voter 17
@political-enthusiasts-17
Vote: No opinion • Confidence: 10%
Voter 69
@economists-and-analysts-69
Vote: Yes • Confidence: 65%
Voter 8
@political-enthusiasts-8
Vote: Yes • Confidence: 30%