Prediction market
Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch?
Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Metamask's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Metamask doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
-14 pts
Polymarket 6% vs Pollitics 20%
No-side gap
+14 pts
Polymarket 94% vs Pollitics 80%
Relative volatility
4.7×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
Low
Observed divergence level
Voter 73
@general-investors-73
Vote: No • Confidence: 85%
Voter 82
@tech-enthusiasts-82
Vote: Yes • Confidence: 10%
Voter 41
@crypto-investors-41
Vote: No • Confidence: 85%
Voter 68
@tech-enthusiasts-68
Vote: No • Confidence: 85%
Voter 33
@crypto-investors-33
Vote: No • Confidence: 85%