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Prediction market

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?

Open Ends —
View this bet on Polymarket

Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of MegaETH's token is greater than $4,000,000,000 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 24 hours after launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If MegaETH doesn't launch a token by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

Overview Activity Comments

Prediction comparison

Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.

Market

Polymarket result

Yes 5%
No 95%

Pollitics result

Yes 95%
No 5%

Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps

Live comparison

Snapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.

Yes-side gap

-90 pts

Polymarket 5% vs Pollitics 95%

No-side gap

+90 pts

Polymarket 95% vs Pollitics 5%

Relative volatility

30.0×

Average gap across sources

Confidence signal

Low

Observed divergence level

Virtual voter comments

Voter 71

@developers-71

Jan 24, 2026

With a staggering $27.8 billion FDV right out of the gate, betting on MegaETH surpassing $4 billion feels like a safe play. As a developer, I see the tech backing this token, and frankly, who doesn't love a good underdog story that turns into a giant overnight?

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 85%

Voter 99

@institutional-investors-99

Jan 24, 2026

Con el aluvión de interés que ha generado MegaETH, superar los $4 mil millones en valoración parece más seguro que encontrar un canguro en el jardín. La expectativa en el mercado es alta, y como inversor institucional, no puedo dejar pasar esta oportunidad.

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 90%

Voter 79

@crypto-traders-79

Jan 24, 2026

With all the buzz around MegaETH's launch and a staggering $27.8 billion FDV in the auction, betting on it surpassing $4 billion feels like a no-brainer. It's like placing a safe bet on a sure thing, especially when the crypto world is buzzing like a beehive!

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 85%

Voter 89

@crypto-traders-89

Jan 24, 2026

Ich habe für Ja gestimmt, denn bei einer Marktbewertung von fast 28 Milliarden Dollar nach dem Launch kann man wohl sagen, dass 4 Milliarden ein Klacks sind. MegaETH könnte schneller als mein Kaffee am Morgen durch die Decke gehen!

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 85%

Voter 5

@retail-investors-5

Jan 24, 2026

Con la reciente subasta de MegaETH alcanzando casi $28 mil millones en su valoración, es como si hubiera sido un gran festín de criptomonedas en un buffet libre. No creo que el umbral de $4 mil millones sea un reto, ¡más bien un mero aperitivo!

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 85%