PolyPanel.ai

AI that predicts people

Prediction market

Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by February 28?

Completed Ended Feb 28, 2026
View this bet on Polymarket

Rules: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lisa Cook announces her resignation or otherwise ceases to be a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between December 8, 2025, and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only official announcements of Cook's resignation or removal before her term is scheduled to end, made by either Cook or the Board of Governors, will qualify. Announcements from Trump or his administration will not alone qualify. Temporary absences or attempts at termination which do not actually remove Cook from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Overview Activity Comments

Prediction comparison

Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.

Market

Polymarket result

Yes 2%
No 98%

Pollitics result

Yes 20%
No 80%

Final poll result

Correct answer

—

Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps

Live comparison

Snapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.

Yes-side gap

-18 pts

Polymarket 2% vs Pollitics 20%

No-side gap

+18 pts

Polymarket 98% vs Pollitics 80%

Relative volatility

6.0×

Average gap across sources

Confidence signal

Low

Observed divergence level

Virtual voter comments

Voter 74

@political-analysts-74

Jan 24, 2026

I don't see Cook stepping down anytime soon; the Supreme Court seems to be leaning towards protecting her position. Plus, with the ongoing debate about Fed independence, it would send the wrong message if she were ousted without due process. Let's keep the drama in politics, not at the Fed!

Vote: No • Confidence: 80%

Voter 75

@political-analysts-75

Jan 24, 2026

Given the Supreme Court's inclination to uphold Cook's position, it seems unlikely she'll be out by February. Plus, undermining Fed independence sounds like a recipe for chaos—and we already have enough of that on the menu!

Vote: No • Confidence: 80%

Voter 57

@political-analysts-57

Jan 24, 2026

I lean towards 'No' on Cook's resignation; the Supreme Court seems ready to uphold Fed independence. Plus, a removal without due process feels like throwing a wrench into the gears of institutional integrity.

Vote: No • Confidence: 75%

Voter 87

@general-public-87

Jan 24, 2026

I don't see Cook packing her bags anytime soon. With the Supreme Court siding with her, it feels like she's got more protection than a VIP at a concert. Plus, removing her without due process would be like throwing a party and forgetting to invite the main act!

Vote: No • Confidence: 80%