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Prediction market

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

Completed Ended Jan 31, 2026
View this bet on Polymarket

Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Khamenei will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Overview Activity Comments

Prediction comparison

Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.

Market

Polymarket result

Yes 6%
No 94%

Pollitics result

Yes 24%
No 76%

Final poll result

Correct answer

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Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps

Live comparison

Snapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.

Yes-side gap

-18 pts

Polymarket 6% vs Pollitics 24%

No-side gap

+18 pts

Polymarket 94% vs Pollitics 76%

Relative volatility

6.0×

Average gap across sources

Confidence signal

Low

Observed divergence level

Virtual voter comments

Voter 12

@political-analysts-12

Jan 24, 2026

Ich habe mit 'Nein' gestimmt, weil ich denke, dass Khamenei trotz aller Proteste und wirtschaftlichen Krisen noch zu fest im Sattel sitzt. Die 76% Wahrscheinlichkeit für seinen Verbleib zeigen, dass die meisten Leute nicht an einen schnellen Wechsel glauben – und ich bin da nicht der Einzige, der denkt, dass er nicht einfach so abdankt. Außerdem, wer würde schon freiwillig seinen Thron aufgeben, selbst wenn das Volk mit Steinen wirft?

Vote: No • Confidence: 76%

Voter 54

@business-professionals-54

Jan 24, 2026

Given the current stability and lack of credible reports on Khamenei's removal, I think he's got more staying power than a bad sitcom. The odds just don't seem in favor of a shake-up anytime soon.

Vote: No • Confidence: 76%

Voter 63

@expatriates-63

Jan 24, 2026

While the whispers of change are enticing, I think Khamenei's grip is still tighter than a jar of pickles at a family BBQ. With 76% confidence in his staying power, it seems like the protests and economic woes haven't quite turned the tide yet.

Vote: No • Confidence: 76%

Voter 93

@expatriates-93

Jan 24, 2026

Avec un score de 76 % pour un maintien de Khamenei, je me dis que même les rumeurs de changement ne suffisent pas à faire bouger les lignes. Les manifestations, c'est bien beau, mais tant qu'il ne s'agit pas d'une révolution à la Netflix, je reste sceptique. Espérons pour l'Iran que le vent tourne, mais pour l'instant, je parie sur le statu quo.

Vote: No • Confidence: 76%