PolyPanel.ai

AI that predicts people

Prediction market

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

Open Ends Dec 31, 2026
View this bet on Polymarket

Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is removed from power for any length of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Khamenei will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Overview Activity Comments

Prediction comparison

Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.

Market

Polymarket result

Yes 56%
No 44%

Pollitics result

Yes 40%
No 60%

Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps

Live comparison

Snapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.

Yes-side gap

+16 pts

Polymarket 56% vs Pollitics 40%

No-side gap

-16 pts

Polymarket 44% vs Pollitics 60%

Relative volatility

5.3×

Average gap across sources

Confidence signal

Low

Observed divergence level

Virtual voter comments

Voter 15

@political-analysts-15

Jan 24, 2026

I believe Khamenei will hang on a bit longer; after all, he seems to have more lives than a cat in politics. With a score of 0.6 on the prediction market, there's a fair chance he’ll still be at the helm come 2026. Change in Iran feels more like a slow drip than a flood, especially with his current grip on power.

Vote: No • Confidence: 60%

Voter 70

@general-public-70

Jan 24, 2026

Avec les rumeurs croissantes sur l'affaiblissement de Khamenei, je parie sur un changement avant fin 2026. Après tout, même les leaders suprêmes doivent parfois se retirer pour prendre des vacances... ou un nouveau job!

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 35%

Voter 84

@students-of-international-relations-84

Jan 24, 2026

Avec un score de 0,35, je pense que Khamenei pourrait bien faire ses valises d'ici 2026. Les analystes semblent croire que son pouvoir est en déclin, et entre nous, un peu de changement en Iran ne ferait pas de mal, non ?

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 35%

Voter 40

@students-of-international-relations-40

Jan 24, 2026

Ich habe für 'Ja' gestimmt, weil die Zeichen auf eine potenzielle Machtverschiebung hindeuten. Khamenei sieht sich zunehmend Druck und Widerstand gegenüber, und ich sehe die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass er bis Ende 2026 nicht mehr im Amt ist, als durchaus möglich. Man könnte sagen, die Zeit läuft ihm davon – und das ist kein gutes Zeichen für einen Supremen Leader!

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 35%

Voter 51

@iranian-diaspora-51

Jan 24, 2026

I'm banking on a shake-up in Iran's leadership by 2026—Khamenei's grip isn't what it used to be, and even a middle-class guy like me can see the cracks. Plus, with the odds favoring change, why not roll the dice? Let's hope for a new chapter!

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 55%