Prediction market
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
+1 pts
Polymarket 16% vs Pollitics 15%
No-side gap
-1 pts
Polymarket 84% vs Pollitics 85%
Relative volatility
0.3×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
High
Observed divergence level
Voter 3
@middle-eastern-residents-3
Vote: No • Confidence: 80%
Voter 71
@us-citizens-71
Vote: No • Confidence: 80%
Voter 65
@political-enthusiasts-65
Vote: No • Confidence: 80%
Voter 29
@middle-eastern-residents-29
Vote: No • Confidence: 80%
Voter 92
@defense-analysts-92
Vote: No • Confidence: 80%