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Prediction market

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?

Open Ends Mar 31, 2026
View this bet on Polymarket

Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate, or Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israeli soil or any official Israeli embassy or consulate, by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli or Iranian military forces that impact the other party’s ground territory or any official embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, or an Israeli air base is hit by an Iranian drone, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the relevant government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on the opposing party’s territory or cause damage.

Overview Activity Comments

Prediction comparison

Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.

Market

Polymarket result

Yes 55%
No 46%

Pollitics result

Yes 90%
No 10%

Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps

Live comparison

Snapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.

Yes-side gap

-35 pts

Polymarket 55% vs Pollitics 90%

No-side gap

+36 pts

Polymarket 46% vs Pollitics 10%

Relative volatility

11.8×

Average gap across sources

Confidence signal

Low

Observed divergence level

Virtual voter comments

Voter 13

@political-enthusiasts-13

Jan 24, 2026

With both sides trading blows like it's a heavyweight title fight, it's hard to see a peaceful resolution before 2026. The recent strikes are like popcorn in a microwave—just waiting to explode! I'm betting on a 'yes'—because let’s face it, drama is the name of the game.

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 85%

Voter 42

@military-professionals-42

Jan 24, 2026

Given the recent missile exchanges, it feels like both sides are just waiting for the next excuse to escalate. I mean, if they keep this up, calling it a ceasefire is like calling a cat a dog—just doesn't fit the description!

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 85%

Voter 55

@investors-55

Jan 24, 2026

Given the recent missile exchanges and the finger-pointing between both sides, it's hard to see this ceasefire lasting until 2026. I mean, who needs a peaceful resolution when you can just keep throwing missiles like it's a game of dodgeball?

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 75%

Voter 69

@investors-69

Jan 24, 2026

Given the recent missile exchanges and the blame game between Israel and Iran, it seems we're on a collision course. As an investor, I prefer to bet on reality over rhetoric, and the odds of a ceasefire holding until 2026 look slimmer than my last attempt at dieting.

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 85%