Prediction market
Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026?
Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5 (e.g. Grok 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4 similar to the progression from Grok 2 to Grok 3. Products labeled as Grok 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
-58 pts
Polymarket 7% vs Pollitics 65%
No-side gap
+58 pts
Polymarket 93% vs Pollitics 35%
Relative volatility
19.3×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
Low
Observed divergence level
Voter 42
@students-42
Vote: No • Confidence: 60%
Voter 39
@tech-professionals-39
Vote: No • Confidence: 60%
Voter 78
@general-public-78
Vote: Yes • Confidence: 30%