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AI that predicts people

Prediction market

Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?

Open Ends Apr 29, 2026
View this bet on Polymarket

Rules: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for April 2026, currently scheduled for April 28-29. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no April meeting takes place by May 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Overview Activity Comments

Prediction comparison

Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.

Market

Polymarket result

Yes 43%
No 57%

Pollitics result

Yes 45%
No 55%

Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps

Live comparison

Snapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.

Yes-side gap

-2 pts

Polymarket 43% vs Pollitics 45%

No-side gap

+2 pts

Polymarket 57% vs Pollitics 55%

Relative volatility

0.7×

Average gap across sources

Confidence signal

High

Observed divergence level

Virtual voter comments

Voter 55

@finance-professionals-55

Jan 24, 2026

As a finance pro, I'm leaning towards a 'No' here. With inflation still dancing and the economy holding strong, I don't see the Fed pulling the trigger on any cuts until the dust settles. It's like waiting for a bus in the rain—might as well grab an umbrella!

Vote: No • Confidence: 50%

Voter 29

@finance-professionals-29

Jan 24, 2026

I see a slight chance of the Fed easing rates by April 2026, despite the mixed signals from economists. Given my finance background, I'm leaning towards the optimists who believe inflation might finally give us a break—after all, even the Fed needs a little R&R every now and then!

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 45%

Voter 39

@finance-professionals-39

Jan 24, 2026

With so much chatter about potential rate cuts, I’m leaning towards a 'yes.' It feels like the Fed might just surprise us, especially with economists divided like my own opinions on what to have for lunch. Let’s hope for some relief by April!

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 45%

Voter 24

@finance-professionals-24

Jan 24, 2026

I'm leaning towards a 'No' on this one. With inflation still playing hard to get and some big names like JPMorgan betting on no cuts this year, it feels like the Fed is more likely to hold the line than break out the scissors.

Vote: No • Confidence: 50%