Prediction market
Consensys IPO closing market cap above $3B?
Rules: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Consensys’ market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Consensys’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
+19 pts
Polymarket 59% vs Pollitics 40%
No-side gap
-19 pts
Polymarket 41% vs Pollitics 60%
Relative volatility
6.3×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
Low
Observed divergence level
Voter 34
@retail-investors-34
Vote: Yes • Confidence: 55%
Voter 64
@financial-analysts-64
Vote: No • Confidence: 40%
Voter 27
@retail-investors-27
Vote: Yes • Confidence: 55%
Voter 90
@institutional-investors-90
Vote: No • Confidence: 40%