Prediction market
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch?
Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Based's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Based (https://x.com/BasedOneX) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
-37 pts
Polymarket 3% vs Pollitics 40%
No-side gap
+37 pts
Polymarket 97% vs Pollitics 60%
Relative volatility
12.3×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
Low
Observed divergence level
Voter 42
@general-public-42
Vote: Yes • Confidence: 55%
Voter 89
@gamers-89
Vote: No • Confidence: 40%
Voter 77
@crypto-investors-77
Vote: No • Confidence: 35%
Voter 5
@crypto-investors-5
Vote: Yes • Confidence: 55%
Voter 100
@tech-enthusiasts-100
Vote: Yes • Confidence: 55%