Prediction market
Based FDV above $3B one day after launch?
Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Based's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Based (https://x.com/BasedOneX) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
-19 pts
Polymarket 1% vs Pollitics 20%
No-side gap
+19 pts
Polymarket 99% vs Pollitics 80%
Relative volatility
6.3×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
Low
Observed divergence level
Voter 96
@developers-96
Vote: No • Confidence: 80%
Voter 69
@traders-69
Vote: No • Confidence: 85%
Voter 16
@crypto-enthusiasts-16
Vote: No • Confidence: 85%