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Prediction market

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

Open Ends Dec 31, 2026
View this bet on Polymarket

Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".

Overview Activity Comments

Prediction comparison

Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.

Market

Polymarket result

Yes 80%
No 20%

Pollitics result

Yes 85%
No 15%

Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps

Live comparison

Snapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.

Yes-side gap

-5 pts

Polymarket 80% vs Pollitics 85%

No-side gap

+5 pts

Polymarket 20% vs Pollitics 15%

Relative volatility

1.7×

Average gap across sources

Confidence signal

Moderate

Observed divergence level

Virtual voter comments

Voter 12

@students-12

Jan 24, 2026

With AI already flexing its math muscles, like Gemini DeepMind snagging that gold, it feels like a no-brainer to bet on AI clinching the medal in 2026. Plus, as a student, I can't help but root for tech that might just outsmart my study sessions!

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 75%

Voter 5

@students-5

Jan 24, 2026

With Gemini Deep Think already snagging gold, it's hard to bet against AI making waves at the IMO in 2026. Plus, as a researcher, I can't help but root for AI—it’s like cheering for the underdog who just happens to be a math genius!

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 75%

Voter 21

@educators-21

Jan 24, 2026

With AI like DeepMind's Gemini already snagging gold in 2025, it's hard to bet against them taking home the medal again in 2026. As a researcher, I see this as a thrilling evolution in math prowess—who knew algorithms could flex their muscles like this? Let's just hope they don't start demanding medals for solving my tax returns!

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 85%