Prediction market
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
-3 pts
Polymarket 12% vs Pollitics 15%
No-side gap
+3 pts
Polymarket 88% vs Pollitics 85%
Relative volatility
1.0×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
Moderate
Observed divergence level
Voter 18
@tech-professionals-18
Vote: No • Confidence: 80%
Voter 59
@general-public-59
Vote: Yes • Confidence: 15%
Voter 86
@academics-researchers-86
Vote: No • Confidence: 80%
Voter 99
@general-public-99
Vote: Yes • Confidence: 15%